The UK can expect a “tsunami of missed cancers”, leading experts have said, after an international study found that diagnoses fell sharply during the pandemic.

Preliminary data from the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership, presented to delegates at the World Cancer Congress in Geneva, compared data on the incidence and stage of cancer diagnosis in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom, before and during the pandemic.

The results showed that the nations of the United Kingdom had the biggest and most sustained fall in the diagnosis of lung, breast, colorectal and skin cancers during 2020. Northern Ireland and Wales did particularly badly compared to the other countries studied.

While all countries saw a decline in diagnosed cases at the peak of the pandemic, most had rebounded within the year. In contrast, Wales and Northern Ireland have not yet recovered their diagnosis rates by the end of 2020.

The study calculated that between April and July 2020, breast diagnoses fell by 35% in Northern Ireland and Wales, compared to 24% in Norway and 14% in Denmark. For lung cancer, in the same period of time, the decrease was 16% in Northern Ireland and Wales compared to 10% in Norway or 1% in New Zealand.

For the most affected month, 44% of breast cancer cases and 30% of lung cancer cases were missed in Northern Ireland and Wales. There was also a sharp drop in colorectal cancer diagnoses.

The decrease in diagnosed cases was greater for cancers in the initial stage, partly due to the suspension of screening programs. In Northern Ireland and Wales, stage I breast cancer diagnoses fell by 44% and 51%, respectively.

Cancer experts said that because of such large drops in diagnoses, they expected to see many more patients presenting with more advanced and late-stage cancers.

“These data are a shocking wake-up call, providing key evidence that the UK can expect a tsunami of missed cancers and a potential change in stage that can lead to more aggressive cancers that are harder to treat,” said Mark Lawler. . professor of digital health at Queen’s University Belfast and chair of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. “And the fact that we are still far from meeting the goal of 62 days to treat cancer can only make the problem worse.”

Lead oncologist and co-founder of the Catch Up With Cancer campaign, Prof Pat Price, said: “These figures are timely and devastating confirmation of the colossal cancer crisis. Without urgent action, we will see more patients diagnosed at a later stage late and more patients facing treatment delays.

“We were at the bottom of the cancer league tables before the pandemic, and as this study shows, we have not only recovered from the backlog in diagnosis. However, it should not be so, as the Lord Darzi’s new NHS report highlights. “If there was ever a time to deliver and implement a dedicated cancer recovery plan, it’s now.”

Naser Turabi, director of evidence and implementation at Cancer Research UK, said: “These findings suggest that the UK health system lacks resilience compared to countries such as New Zealand, leaving it more vulnerable to impact of Covid. This could have serious consequences for cancer patients who have faced delays in diagnosis due to excessive services.”